20 Nov 24
Becoming comfortable within 'VUCA' environments is now a leadership 'superskill'.
Waiting for all the information required prior to making a decision can mean the difference between a Company surviving or not.
The 'OODA' loop provides a mechanism to be able to make rapiod decisions, based upon increased situational awareness.
Can you afford to wait before you make a decision, or will your competitors outpace you and get to market first?
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#38 - Super VUCA!
What?
Life is very rarely black and white, or a solid binary 1 or 0. In fact, the reality is that we increasingly live in a world of grey in between both states; this is the 'Grey zone!'
In a world which is awash with information, bizarrely there are still (and in most cases) increasingly frequent occasions where sufficient information to make an important decision just may not be available.
These types of environments are called 'VUCA' environments.
'VUCA' refers to environments which are Volatile, Uncertain, Complex and/or Ambiquous.
Learning to operate within a 'VUCA' world is now considered one of the 'must have' skills of 21st Century leadership.
Why?
In order to ensure a leader remains relevant, learning to comfortably exist inbetween black and white, 1 and 0, for long periods is a must.
This is because the pace of change is now so great. So great, in fact, that one could now say that constant change is now the status quo.
The certainties of the past have been eradicated and replaced by a tempo of decision-making which requires leaders who have the intellectual capacity and flexibility to be able to change their plans in a heartbeat.
Waiting for all the information to become clear before committing to a final decision now risks placing the Company or personal position in an exposed place. This is because competitors are increasingly refining their decision-making process and making it more agile and flexible to meet the needs of the new business environment.
The trick is to build better situational awareness and find the sweetspot for sound decisions to be made. This will allow you to outpace your competition.
How?
One of the best concepts that I have discovered is a model developed by a former US Fighter Pilot/Military Strategist in the 1950s/60s. His name was John Boyd.
Boyd was convinced that conventional methods of decision-making would have to make way for the development of an ability to rapidly and accurately acquire and then act on information.
He therefore developed a system which enabled fighter pilots to 'get inside' the decision-making loop of their adversaries. The model allowed them to make decisions faster within a dogfight. This resulted in significant success during air combat thus providing an operational edge.
The model he developed was called the 'OODA' loop. This breaks down into:
- Observe - The first step is to identify the problem or threat and gain an overall understanding of the internal and external environment.
- Orientate - The Orientation phase involves reflecting on what has been found during observations and considering what should be done next.
- Decide - This phase makes suggestions toward an action or response plan, taking into consideration all potential outcomes.
- Act - The final step involves carrying out the decision and related changes that need to be made in response to the decision.
Image courtesy of: southstatecorrespondent.com
The key to success with the above model is to perform each step rapidly and so make sure that your decisions are made at a much quicker tempo than your opponent.
You are effectively outpacing them in terms of decision-making tempo. This requires situational awareness and minimal time between stimulus and response.
Nobody should be waiting for 100% complete information before making a decision. Consider 80/20, and the risk involved in not making a decision!
Indeed, one might say that making a decision, any decision, is more effective than not making one at all. Because once a decision is made, even if it is a bad one, will change the environment.
And it may well change the environment to one which allows another, much simpler, decision to be made to get ahead of the game!
In Summary
I hope that you enjoyed reading this newsletter and that it has given you food for thought.
The 'VUCA' environment does not support a decision-making process which calls for 100% of the facts required prior to making a decision.
Instead, leaders must become comfortable making decisions rapidly, even if they are not optimal. This may well facilitate the creation of much better circimstances where an easier second decision may well give you the result you require!
Have a great week!
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